Mumbai, Chennai, Delhi, Surat, Thane, Hyderabad, Patna and Bhubaneswar are projected to witness a two-fold increase in heatwave days by 2030, according to a study released June 10, 2025 by development consulting firm IPE Global and GIS technology provider Esri India.
Unveiled at the International Global-South Climate Risk Symposium in New Delhi, the report titled Weathering the Storm: Managing Monsoons in a Warming Climate offers a district-level assessments of the correlation between extreme heat and erratic rainfall in India. The findings underscored the escalating threat of climate change and call for urgent, localised interventions to strengthen resilience across urban and rural landscapes.
Incessant and erratic rainfall will become more frequent in 8 out of 10 districts in India, the report noted.
“Our analysis suggests that around 72 per cent of the tier-I & tier-II cities are going to witness an increased occurrences of heat stress and extreme rainfall events, accompanied with storm surges, lightening and hailstorms,” said Abinash Mohanty, head of Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and lead author of the study. “Meteorological phenomenon like El Nino & La Nina are going to gain stronger momentum, resulting in abrupt surge in climate extremes like flood, cyclones, storm surges and extreme heat.”
Coastal districts, in particular, are expected to endure prolonged summer-like conditions even during the peak monsoon months of June through September. Around 69 per cent of coastal districts will be affected by heat stress by 2030, a figure that could rise to 79 per cent by 2040.
Drawing on dynamic climate modelling and spatial analytics, the study documented a stark rise in extreme heat over the last three decades. Between 1993 and 2024, India recorded a 15 times increase in heatwave days during both the March-May and June-September periods. The last decade alone saw a 19-fold surge, with far-reaching implications for human health, agriculture, energy demand and water stress.
Microclimate shifts, land-use change
The study highlighted that in a business-as-usual scenario, 63 per cent of hotspot districts will undergo land-use and land-cover changes by 2030. These transformations — from forest to farmland, wetland to settlement — are exacerbating local heat and rainfall extremes by disrupting natural cooling systems and water cycles.
Some states that already face extreme heat will bear an additional burden of extreme rainfall. These include Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Meghalaya and Manipur, with more than 80 percent of the districts projected to be impacted by this by 2030, the authors of the report found.
Local factors such as deforestation, unplanned urbanisation, loss of wetlands and mangroves intensify the broader climate crisis. “Embracing hyper-granular risk assessments and establishing climate-risk observatories should become a national imperative to safeguard Indian agriculture, industry, and large-scale infrastructural projects from the vagaries of climate change,” said Mohanty.
“The growing intensity and frequency of extreme heat and rainfall events across India are no longer rare occurrences — they are signals of a shifting climate reality impacting lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure,” said Agendra Kumar, Managing Director, Esri India. Addressing them requires a scientific and spatially informed approach, the expert added. “GIS technology offers the ability to visualise and respond to these risks in real-time — whether in city planning, agriculture or disaster response.”
The report recommended the establishment of a Climate Risk Observatory — a centralised platform using Earth Observation data and climate models to provide real-time and predictive information.
Such a system, the authors argued, would enable real-time forecasting, improve public communication and help policymakers prioritise investment in climate-resilient infrastructure.
The authors also called for the creation of heat-risk champions within District Disaster Management Committees to coordinate response efforts and enhance grassroots resilience.
Financing risks
In addition to scientific and governance reforms, the study advocates for risk financing mechanisms to cushion the economic blow of climate-induced disasters.
“Climate and development pathways are intricately linked. Nearly all countries of the Global South face the dual challenge of improving living conditions for large segments of their population while simultaneously adapting to the consequences of climate change,” said Ashwajit Singh, Founder and Managing Director of IPE Global.
India has to bring innovations from margins to the mainstream, he suggested. “Only then, can India truly emerge as the climate solutions capital to the world”.
The report, released as India prepares to participate in SB 62, the mid-year climate negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Bonn, calls for a “climate solutions mindset” — shifting from reactive responses to proactive, data-driven planning.
